Tuesday, January 15, 2008
2007/08 Predictions - Review at the Halfway Mark
by Jes
Before the season, I polled a few friends and bloggers and put our predictions together with those from a few mainstream media sites. I do this most every season, and have a pretty good track record vs. the MSM boys. It's just bragging rights, and doesn't mean a whole lot, but I figure that my methodology for predictions is quite solid.
Now that we're half way through the season, here is a look at the predictions, together with the standings to date.
Now, I realize that some teams have played a few more games than others, so the tables could fluctuate quite easily. Still, we know that Toronto and Los Angeles are clearly in the tank and that Detroit and Ottawa are easily #1 in their conferences.
A few notes and totes ...
1. I took a HUGE chance on LA, figuring they'd find an offensive explosion with their signings and talent. Well, Handzus has been a big bust, Nagy hasn't quite shown us that full potential we keep waiting for, and goaltending became an even bigger issue than we figured. I knew this was a risky pick, and it blew up in my face. It doesn't help that Marc Crawford is clearly the worst coach in the entire NHL, even more so than Paul Maurice.
2. Phoenix was picked to be the biggest basement dweller (all except my g/f), but Wayne has the boys playing fairly well and Bryzgalov has helped them become a fairly tough team to play against.
3. Colorado is likely headed for a fall after long-term injuries to Ryan Smyth and Joe Sakic. Otherwise, they're doing as well as expected.
4. The New York Islanders are a big surprise in the East, but you look at a goal differential of -14, and look at their roster, and realize that their record is definitely better than it should be. Now, Ted Nolan is an excellent coach, but I expect this team, more than any other, to falter in the second half as reality sets in.
5. Montreal is also doing surprisingly well, thanks to a great Power Play and some good systematic play under coach Guy Carbonneau. Oh, and Tomas Plekanec = teh awesomez.
6. Tampa Bay was headed for a fall because their goaltending sucks and their defence is shaky. Well, the loss of Dan Boyle was obviously more than they could handle and their offence just can't make up for their other shortcomings.
7. Toronto - Time to give it up.
Now that we're half way through the season, here is a look at the predictions, together with the standings to date.
Now, I realize that some teams have played a few more games than others, so the tables could fluctuate quite easily. Still, we know that Toronto and Los Angeles are clearly in the tank and that Detroit and Ottawa are easily #1 in their conferences.
A few notes and totes ...
1. I took a HUGE chance on LA, figuring they'd find an offensive explosion with their signings and talent. Well, Handzus has been a big bust, Nagy hasn't quite shown us that full potential we keep waiting for, and goaltending became an even bigger issue than we figured. I knew this was a risky pick, and it blew up in my face. It doesn't help that Marc Crawford is clearly the worst coach in the entire NHL, even more so than Paul Maurice.
2. Phoenix was picked to be the biggest basement dweller (all except my g/f), but Wayne has the boys playing fairly well and Bryzgalov has helped them become a fairly tough team to play against.
3. Colorado is likely headed for a fall after long-term injuries to Ryan Smyth and Joe Sakic. Otherwise, they're doing as well as expected.
4. The New York Islanders are a big surprise in the East, but you look at a goal differential of -14, and look at their roster, and realize that their record is definitely better than it should be. Now, Ted Nolan is an excellent coach, but I expect this team, more than any other, to falter in the second half as reality sets in.
5. Montreal is also doing surprisingly well, thanks to a great Power Play and some good systematic play under coach Guy Carbonneau. Oh, and Tomas Plekanec = teh awesomez.
6. Tampa Bay was headed for a fall because their goaltending sucks and their defence is shaky. Well, the loss of Dan Boyle was obviously more than they could handle and their offence just can't make up for their other shortcomings.
7. Toronto - Time to give it up.
Labels: ill-advised predictions, predictions
Friday, October 05, 2007
07-08 Predictions With Conviction
by Jes
Well, I finally put together the little predictions spreadsheet that I do every year, comparing my picks with Greg's, Mirtle's, and other mainstream writers and publications. Just to brag a little, I tend to kick the MSM's ass quite frequently, although I do have the benefit of time. Magazines have to come out with their predictions a bit earlier ... although they still tend to make really dumb picks.
I gathered my picks and those of Greg, my girlfriend, Mirtle, and Globe and Mail writers Tim Wharnsby, Eric Duhatschek, and Alan Maki. The magazines include The Score's Forecaster, The Hockey News, and McKeens.
Some notes and totes
1. Lone wolves - Only one person picked the Canucks to miss the playoffs (Mirtle = Hater), only one person (my lovely g/f) picked the Coyotes NOT to finish last in the West, and only McKeen's picked a non-Ottawa team to finish 1st in the East. Alan Maki went nuts and pick the Islanders to finish in the playoffs. Many others had them in the basement, or near to it.
2. Tampa Bay - I was one of three who picked them to finish out of the playoff race. With such a cruddy defence (Boyle is injured, too) and goaltending, I don't see how a one-and-a-half line team can be all that successful.
3. Calgary - I think Keenan will be a disaster for that club, and am waiting for Huselius and Tanguay to run screaming. Most other people don’t seem to agree, and have picked them for a playoff spot. I realize that their goaltending and D is great, but Keenan is just bad news.
4. Mirtle seems really high on Florida, for some reason. I agree with him that the team has some real potential, but I see more holes in their defence than Robert Pickton's case.
5. Pittsburgh should outscore the league by a WIDE margin. If one of their goalies could not suck, they'd be a real contender out of the East.
6. No change in the fact that the West still has the balance of power in terms of strong teams.
Well, I finally put together the little predictions spreadsheet that I do every year, comparing my picks with Greg's, Mirtle's, and other mainstream writers and publications. Just to brag a little, I tend to kick the MSM's ass quite frequently, although I do have the benefit of time. Magazines have to come out with their predictions a bit earlier ... although they still tend to make really dumb picks.
I gathered my picks and those of Greg, my girlfriend, Mirtle, and Globe and Mail writers Tim Wharnsby, Eric Duhatschek, and Alan Maki. The magazines include The Score's Forecaster, The Hockey News, and McKeens.
Some notes and totes
1. Lone wolves - Only one person picked the Canucks to miss the playoffs (Mirtle = Hater), only one person (my lovely g/f) picked the Coyotes NOT to finish last in the West, and only McKeen's picked a non-Ottawa team to finish 1st in the East. Alan Maki went nuts and pick the Islanders to finish in the playoffs. Many others had them in the basement, or near to it.
2. Tampa Bay - I was one of three who picked them to finish out of the playoff race. With such a cruddy defence (Boyle is injured, too) and goaltending, I don't see how a one-and-a-half line team can be all that successful.
3. Calgary - I think Keenan will be a disaster for that club, and am waiting for Huselius and Tanguay to run screaming. Most other people don’t seem to agree, and have picked them for a playoff spot. I realize that their goaltending and D is great, but Keenan is just bad news.
4. Mirtle seems really high on Florida, for some reason. I agree with him that the team has some real potential, but I see more holes in their defence than Robert Pickton's case.
5. Pittsburgh should outscore the league by a WIDE margin. If one of their goalies could not suck, they'd be a real contender out of the East.
6. No change in the fact that the West still has the balance of power in terms of strong teams.
Labels: predictions
Monday, May 28, 2007
Ducks vs. Senators Series Preview Post Thingy
by Jes
Just because every blogger is obligated to have their series preview in by 5PM EST, I might as well post mine before I get smacked with a farmed salmon.
I went 2-for-2 in Round 3, giving me a 12-for-14 record overall (86%). Greg is at like 21% or something.
Of all the bloggers and writers, I am the bestest!
Here's the shakedown, kiddo.
Goaltending
Ray Emery: 15GP 12-3 1.95GAA 91.9SV%
J-S Giguere: 13GP 9-3 1.87GAA 93.1SV%
Sugar Ray Emery (oooh, what an original nickname) was rather ordinary in the first two series, but was just fine in the semi-finals. His SV% is actually in the lower half of playoff goalies, for what is it worth. The Sens play great defense in front of him, and he is their biggest weakness.
Obviously, Giguere is the better of the two and has the experience Emery does not. At least Emery is no Patrick Lalime, and Sens fans aren't nervous about his potential performance.
Edge: ANAHEIM
Defence
Anaheim: 10 goals, 23 assists, +14
Ottawa: 8 goals, 24 assists, +22
I'll take the Big 3 + the unsung Sean O'Donnell over the Senators group any day of the week (even Wednesdays).
The Sens, to their credit, are playing way more than the sum of their individual parts. Wade Redden is a fairly nice chip (even though he looks like a big puss), and "The Butcher "Meszaros is a fine young cannibal, but the Sens should almost be not playing as well as they are, given how ordinary their D looks on paper.
I just feel that the Ducks physical forwards will have their way with the likes of Schubert, Corvo, and Preissing.
Edge: ANAHEIM
Forwards
The Sens are known as a 1-line team, but that one line kicks some serious ass and the players are #1, #2, and #4 in playoff scoring. The Ducks' top forward scorer is Ryan Getzlaf with 13 points in 16 games.
Guys like Andy MacDonald, Dustin Penner, and Chris Kunitz have been rather disappointing. The Sens can throw out Mike "The Brick" Comrie, Mean Dean McAmmond, Chris "The Real Deal" Neil, Peter Schaeffer and Antoine Vermette if they want some secondary scoring.
Sens depth > Ducks Depth
EDGE: OTTAWA
Special Teams
Anaheim: PP = 15.3% (7th), PK = 87.5% (6th)
Ottawa: PP = 20.0% (2nd), PK = 88.6% (4th)
Anaheim also averages a league-high 6 shorthanded opportunities against per game, while the Sens are more disciplined at 5.27.
Edge: OTTAWA
Slovaks
Anaheim = None. Bastards!
Ottawa = Andrej Meszaros.
Edge: OTTAWA
Greg picked ... Ottawa
Edge: ANAHEIM
Overall prediction: Anaheim Ducks in 7.
Just because every blogger is obligated to have their series preview in by 5PM EST, I might as well post mine before I get smacked with a farmed salmon.
I went 2-for-2 in Round 3, giving me a 12-for-14 record overall (86%). Greg is at like 21% or something.
Of all the bloggers and writers, I am the bestest!
Here's the shakedown, kiddo.
Goaltending
Ray Emery: 15GP 12-3 1.95GAA 91.9SV%
J-S Giguere: 13GP 9-3 1.87GAA 93.1SV%
Sugar Ray Emery (oooh, what an original nickname) was rather ordinary in the first two series, but was just fine in the semi-finals. His SV% is actually in the lower half of playoff goalies, for what is it worth. The Sens play great defense in front of him, and he is their biggest weakness.
Obviously, Giguere is the better of the two and has the experience Emery does not. At least Emery is no Patrick Lalime, and Sens fans aren't nervous about his potential performance.
Edge: ANAHEIM
Defence
Anaheim: 10 goals, 23 assists, +14
Ottawa: 8 goals, 24 assists, +22
I'll take the Big 3 + the unsung Sean O'Donnell over the Senators group any day of the week (even Wednesdays).
The Sens, to their credit, are playing way more than the sum of their individual parts. Wade Redden is a fairly nice chip (even though he looks like a big puss), and "The Butcher "Meszaros is a fine young cannibal, but the Sens should almost be not playing as well as they are, given how ordinary their D looks on paper.
I just feel that the Ducks physical forwards will have their way with the likes of Schubert, Corvo, and Preissing.
Edge: ANAHEIM
Forwards
The Sens are known as a 1-line team, but that one line kicks some serious ass and the players are #1, #2, and #4 in playoff scoring. The Ducks' top forward scorer is Ryan Getzlaf with 13 points in 16 games.
Guys like Andy MacDonald, Dustin Penner, and Chris Kunitz have been rather disappointing. The Sens can throw out Mike "The Brick" Comrie, Mean Dean McAmmond, Chris "The Real Deal" Neil, Peter Schaeffer and Antoine Vermette if they want some secondary scoring.
Sens depth > Ducks Depth
EDGE: OTTAWA
Special Teams
Anaheim: PP = 15.3% (7th), PK = 87.5% (6th)
Ottawa: PP = 20.0% (2nd), PK = 88.6% (4th)
Anaheim also averages a league-high 6 shorthanded opportunities against per game, while the Sens are more disciplined at 5.27.
Edge: OTTAWA
Slovaks
Anaheim = None. Bastards!
Ottawa = Andrej Meszaros.
Edge: OTTAWA
Greg picked ... Ottawa
Edge: ANAHEIM
Overall prediction: Anaheim Ducks in 7.
Labels: ducks, predictions, senators, stanley cup
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Greg's 1st Round Playoff Predictions
by Greg
Scroll down or click here for Jes's picks.
Eastern Conference
#1 Buffalo vs #8 NY Islanders - Buffalo in 4 games
Nice rally there at the end, Isles, but no chance. Hard to imagine this one being terribly competitive.
#2 New Jersey vs #7 Tampa Bay - New Jersey in 5 games
I thought the Lightning would present a first-round threat to the Thrashers -- I don't think they have a chance against the Devils, though. Not with Denis/Holmqvist.
#3 Atlanta vs #6 NY Rangers - Atlanta in 7 games
This is a lot less fun when Jes and I are agreeing on everything. Not much impresses me about this Rangers team, but they should have enough to stretch out the Thrashers.
#4 Ottawa vs #5 Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh in 6 games
Finally! Some disagreement. Ottawa seems to have holes and questions everywhere you look, Pittsburgh is on the way up. By the end of this series I'll have overdosed on Sidney C. highlight packages.
Western Conference
#1 Detroit vs #8 Calgary - Calgary in 6 games
A bizarre situation here, where it seems to have become common wisdom that Calgary will beat the top seed. Is anyone picking Detroit? That sort of groupthink sorta makes me wonder if I should jump ship and pick the Wings, but I'm just not very impressed by them, and Kiprusoff > Hasek/Osgood.
#2 Anaheim vs #7 Minnesota - Anaheim in 4 games
Trials and travails largely behind them, if I were to pick a Cup winner at this point, it might be Anaheim.
#3 Vancouver vs #6 Dallas - Vancouver in 7 games
This should be a fun one to watch, eh? Hopefully the Food Channel has something good on at the same time.
#4 Nashville vs #5 San Jose - Nashville in 7 games
Nashville was my preseason Cup pick, and I'm not ready to give up on them yet -- especially with the addition of Forsberg. San Jose strikes me as a team where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Though that could also be applied to Nashville. Or, for that matter, most of the teams in the playoffs this year.
Scroll down or click here for Jes's picks.
Eastern Conference
#1 Buffalo vs #8 NY Islanders - Buffalo in 4 games
Nice rally there at the end, Isles, but no chance. Hard to imagine this one being terribly competitive.
#2 New Jersey vs #7 Tampa Bay - New Jersey in 5 games
I thought the Lightning would present a first-round threat to the Thrashers -- I don't think they have a chance against the Devils, though. Not with Denis/Holmqvist.
#3 Atlanta vs #6 NY Rangers - Atlanta in 7 games
This is a lot less fun when Jes and I are agreeing on everything. Not much impresses me about this Rangers team, but they should have enough to stretch out the Thrashers.
#4 Ottawa vs #5 Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh in 6 games
Finally! Some disagreement. Ottawa seems to have holes and questions everywhere you look, Pittsburgh is on the way up. By the end of this series I'll have overdosed on Sidney C. highlight packages.
Western Conference
#1 Detroit vs #8 Calgary - Calgary in 6 games
A bizarre situation here, where it seems to have become common wisdom that Calgary will beat the top seed. Is anyone picking Detroit? That sort of groupthink sorta makes me wonder if I should jump ship and pick the Wings, but I'm just not very impressed by them, and Kiprusoff > Hasek/Osgood.
#2 Anaheim vs #7 Minnesota - Anaheim in 4 games
Trials and travails largely behind them, if I were to pick a Cup winner at this point, it might be Anaheim.
#3 Vancouver vs #6 Dallas - Vancouver in 7 games
This should be a fun one to watch, eh? Hopefully the Food Channel has something good on at the same time.
#4 Nashville vs #5 San Jose - Nashville in 7 games
Nashville was my preseason Cup pick, and I'm not ready to give up on them yet -- especially with the addition of Forsberg. San Jose strikes me as a team where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Though that could also be applied to Nashville. Or, for that matter, most of the teams in the playoffs this year.
Labels: First Round, NHL, playoffs, predictions
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Jes's 1st Round Playoff Predictions
by Jes
Eastern Conference:
#1 Buffalo vs. NYI. - Buffalo in 4 games
Buffalo will rip apart the tattered Isles defense and score plenty against W-vich or a concussed Rick DiPietro (should they try and play him)
#2 New Jersey vs. #7 Tampa Bay - NJ in 6 games
Tampa can score goals, but their goaltending sucks. New Jersey is a well-oiled machine and Martin Brodeur is playing the best hockey of his career.
#3 Atlanta vs. #6 NYR - Thrashers in 6 games
Kari Lehtonen is better than some people might think, and King Henrik is too busy abusing Ice Girls to spend time stopping the puck. The top-heavy Rangers offense got a boost with Brendan Shanahan, but the Thrashers should be able to win the day with their offensive firepower and defensive forwards like Bobby Holik should be able to container Jagr and company.
#4 Ottawa vs. #5 Pittsburgh - Senators in 5 games
Penguins lack of goaltending and experience will ultimately do them in. The Sens won't choke just yet. Look for Sidney to do some damage, but he'll have to control his emotions.
Western Conference:
#1 Detroit vs. #8 Calgary - Calgary in 7 games
Wings have become a very tight-checking team, but look for Hasek and a weaker-than-expected PP to let them down. Miikka Kiprusoff and an improved Flames offense will be the difference in an upset.
I posted a complete preview over at The Fanhouse.
#2 Anaheim vs. #7 Minnesota - Anaheim in 6 games
Anaheim's youngsters have continued their improvement, their goaltending rocks, and they have 2 Norris-worthy defensemen. Potatohead and Pavol rock the house, but the lack of offense from the Minnesota D hurts them greatly.
#3 Vancouver vs. #6 Dallas - Canucks in 6 games
The two lowest scoring teams face off in a very evenly matched series. Look for Luongo to win the goaltending battle as Turco chokes again and the weak Stars offense is shut down by the league's best PK unit.
I posted a complete preview over at The NHL Fanhouse.
#4 Nashville vs. #5 San Jose - Sharks in 6 games
Nashville's D is either too small or too inexperienced for my liking and Peter Forsberg has been a walking injury. Joe Thornton has a spotty playoff history, but I expect him and Cheech to do some damage. The Sharks are scarier than their 4th place finish would indicate, and their goaltending matches up fine with Vokoun/Mason.
Eastern Conference:
#1 Buffalo vs. NYI. - Buffalo in 4 games
Buffalo will rip apart the tattered Isles defense and score plenty against W-vich or a concussed Rick DiPietro (should they try and play him)
#2 New Jersey vs. #7 Tampa Bay - NJ in 6 games
Tampa can score goals, but their goaltending sucks. New Jersey is a well-oiled machine and Martin Brodeur is playing the best hockey of his career.
#3 Atlanta vs. #6 NYR - Thrashers in 6 games
Kari Lehtonen is better than some people might think, and King Henrik is too busy abusing Ice Girls to spend time stopping the puck. The top-heavy Rangers offense got a boost with Brendan Shanahan, but the Thrashers should be able to win the day with their offensive firepower and defensive forwards like Bobby Holik should be able to container Jagr and company.
#4 Ottawa vs. #5 Pittsburgh - Senators in 5 games
Penguins lack of goaltending and experience will ultimately do them in. The Sens won't choke just yet. Look for Sidney to do some damage, but he'll have to control his emotions.
Western Conference:
#1 Detroit vs. #8 Calgary - Calgary in 7 games
Wings have become a very tight-checking team, but look for Hasek and a weaker-than-expected PP to let them down. Miikka Kiprusoff and an improved Flames offense will be the difference in an upset.
I posted a complete preview over at The Fanhouse.
#2 Anaheim vs. #7 Minnesota - Anaheim in 6 games
Anaheim's youngsters have continued their improvement, their goaltending rocks, and they have 2 Norris-worthy defensemen. Potatohead and Pavol rock the house, but the lack of offense from the Minnesota D hurts them greatly.
#3 Vancouver vs. #6 Dallas - Canucks in 6 games
The two lowest scoring teams face off in a very evenly matched series. Look for Luongo to win the goaltending battle as Turco chokes again and the weak Stars offense is shut down by the league's best PK unit.
I posted a complete preview over at The NHL Fanhouse.
#4 Nashville vs. #5 San Jose - Sharks in 6 games
Nashville's D is either too small or too inexperienced for my liking and Peter Forsberg has been a walking injury. Joe Thornton has a spotty playoff history, but I expect him and Cheech to do some damage. The Sharks are scarier than their 4th place finish would indicate, and their goaltending matches up fine with Vokoun/Mason.
Labels: First Round, NHL, playoffs, predictions
