Friday, March 17, 2006


Hobey Baker Finalists Announced

From the AP Wire:

Forward Ryan Potulny of Minnesota and defenseman Matt Carle of Denver were among 10 finalists named Thursday for the 2006 Hobey Baker Memorial Award, the top honor in college hockey.

Potulny leads the nation in goal scoring this season with 34, but Carle edged him out Thursday for WCHA player of the year honors. Carle leads the country in assists with 42.

The other Hobey Baker finalists are: Chris Collins of Boston College, Brian Elliott of Wisconsin, Andy Greene of Miami (Ohio), Greg Moore of Maine, Scott Parse of Nebraska-Omaha, 2005 winner Marty Sertich of Colorado College, Brett Sterling of Colorado College, and T.J. Trevelyan of St. Lawrence.

The finalists were selected by a vote of the 59 NCAA Division I head coaches, along with online fan balloting. The winner will be decided by a selection committee made up of coaches, scouts, media and a representative from USA Hockey, as well as fan voting.

The top three finalists will be named March 29, and the winner will be announced April 7 in Milwaukee, the day before the championship game of the NCAA Frozen Four.

Of course, given the "analysis" that I did about past Hobey winners, those finalists may not want to win all that badly and suffer the Hobey Curse.

isthisthe curse that has them outperforming the 19th overall draft pick?
I read the research post and the critique by Anonymous. My question of The Anonymous One is why should we be comparing the Hobey Baker to the 19th pick in the NHL Draft? Shouldn't the Hobey Baker winner be compared to the MVP of the OHL, WHL, or QMJHL? The NCAA and the major junior leagues are the primary sources for NHL propects.

As far as the "cures" mentioned by Jes Golbez I think this can be explained in a fairly straightforward manner: the Hobey Baker winner doesn't go to the best player in college hockey.

Instead the Hobey Baker goes to the best junior or senior in college hockey. There is a strong bias toward players who stay in college for 3-4 years. Almost no freshman or sophmores win it (Kariya is the biggest exception--but he absolutely dominate NCAA that year). Frankly the best college players (Kariya, Heatley, Brindamour) leave early to go the NHL.
well you answered most of your question. why the 19th? 4 years in the ncaa is NOT the fast track. however this "curse" has slow track players doing better than 10 of the top 30 fast track players.

now the ncaa is getting more competetive and more people are being drafted out of it, as the years go on, the hobey winner may end up a mid first in success

it should most firmly ALSO be noted that these hobey bakers are averaging low second round AT BEST slots. so they are OUTPERFORMING their "potential" not undervaluing

why not compare to the "q". q is the fast track :) kind of like comparing the top ahl player to the top nhl player is some respects, but i would also like to point out that the "q" has sooo figured out the stupidity of the mvp that they created a special award to pick the best future nhl player.
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