With the season ending soon, here’s a look at who I would pick for the Vezina Trophy (top goalie) and who is likely to win. Unlike the other awards, the Vezina is voted on by the NHL General Managers, and not the writers. The GMs tend to look at different criteria when awarding the Vezina, and often do a poor job of picking the best goaltender. How else can you explain the Vezina that Jim Carey won? Shutouts, lots of shutouts.
GMs tend to look at the ‘big’ stats like WINS and SHUTOUTS and GAA and don’t evaluate the goaltenders very well given the team and situation they play in.

Looking at the Vezina Trophy race, it’s pretty much acknowledged that it’s a two-horse race between Henrik Lundqvist of the New York Rangers and Miikka Kiprusoff of the Calgary Flames. Tomas Vokoun is the dark-horse whose chances are likely shot thanks to his season-ending injury and the fact he gets far less press than the other two.

Looking at the top SV%s in the league, we can narrow down the field drastically.

Christobal Huet has been sensation as he helped carry the Habs into the playoffs and Dominik Hasek was almost unbeatable before Humpty Dumpty fell off of the wall and all of the Ottawa surgeons tried to put him back together again.

While Huet, Hasek, and even Tim Thomas have had sensational campaigns, they have really only had great half-seasons. Hasek was a Vezina candidate after the first half and Thomas and Huet have played most of their games in the 2nd half of the season. They lower games played totals will work against them and they haven’t been nearly as valuable as a goaltender who has played as a #1 for a full season. Therefore, you can write them off easily as Vezina winners.

This leaves us with the three musketeers mentioned before and Manny Fernandez.

Fernandez has a great SV%, and has broken the 30 win barrier, but it’s hard to be a Vezina winner on a non-playoff team unless you are Dominik Hasek prime-time edition. You can also see how many fewer shots Fernandez has faced than a guy like Vokoun. The Minnesota Mild play such a choking trap-system that Fernandez is obviously partially a product of the protection he gets. Look at how exposed Dwayne Roloson was when he was traded to Edmonton. Given these factors, you can eliminate Fernandez from serious contention.

Out of the three goalies left, you can see Kiprusoff leads them all in the major categories except for SV%, and that margin is so slim that it makes no difference. Many wondered if Miikka was for real as his last campaign was essentially a half-season and he had a horrible start. Well, he’s played in almost every game for the Calgary Flames, and carried a very low scoring team into the playoffs. GM’s will definitely look at the eye-popping 10 shutouts in their voting and given the fact that Kiprusoff has the ‘black ink’ (for leading in individual categories), I would wager money that the GM’s will vote for him as the Vezina winner.

As for my choice, you could make a good case for all 3 goaltenders. Tomas Vokoun has put up very good numbers and faces more shots per minute than the other two finalists.

Lundqvist? He’s been a huge reason for the New York Rangers turnaround and he’s put up his fine numbers in a higher-scoring Eastern Conference environment (something the GM’s will never recognize but we will). He also played behind a far weaker defense corps than Kiprusoff and the Flames. Looking at the shots-per-minute, and what we know about the rosters, it’s obvious that Kiprusoff is far more protected than the other two finalists.

Still, my vote will go to Miikka by a slight margin, with Tomas Vokoun in 3rd by a slight margin. It's really quite a tight race and all three goaltenders should be commended for having great seasons.

Even with the protection he gets, Kiprusoff managed to play almost every minute of every game for the Flames and carry a low-scoring team into the playoffs. There is huge value in having a great goalie be able to play huge minutes and not show any fatigue or dip in ability. The more Kiprusoff can play at a high level, the less the Flames have to rely on an inferior backup like Brian Boucher or Philippe Sauve, who would cost the Flames in goal. Lundqvist was very good, but he couldn’t log the minutes Kipper could and the Rangers had to play Kevin "I wuz robbed!" Weekes a lot more than they should.

Oh, and because Lundqvist is Swedish. Heh heh heh heh.