Monday, October 24, 2005


Todd Marchant: A bad investment in a safe stock

The Furnace Hockey Blog is lamenting the fact that Todd Marchant has been giving a poor return on the hefty investment Columbus (well, more like Doug MacLean) put into him.

Todd Marchant ( 8games, 0 Goals, 2 assists)

I think Blue Jackets fans were hoping for a better return on their investment, but so far Todd's play has been unispired, and he looks like the least interested player on the ice. While the Jackets have been suffering this season due to injuries of Nash, Brule, Fritsche, and Klesla; a veteran like Todd would have been looked to to step up the intensity of his game not to mention his on-ice production. So far, Todd's response: (the sound of crickets).

Hmm, why is it that in pro sports, GMs and owners always pay for past performance and not future performance? Did the BJ's expect a 30 year-old Marchant to suddenly make a giant leap and do even better than he was as an Oiler?

Oh, we know the BJ's got jobbed on the Marchant deal. I just wonder what the hell ever convinced Doug MacLean to give Marchant about $3mil a year for his services? (Now down to about $2.47 mil).

Marchant's Stats during his Oilers years (GP G A PTS)
1995-96 Edmonton Oilers NHL 81 19 19 38
1996-97 Edmonton Oilers NHL 79 14 19 33
1997-98 Edmonton Oilers NHL 76 14 21 35
1998-99 Edmonton Oilers NHL 82 14 22 36
1999-00 Edmonton Oilers NHL 82 17 23 40
2000-01 Edmonton Oilers NHL 71 13 26 39
2001-02 Edmonton Oilers NHL 82 12 22 34
2002-03 Edmonton Oilers NHL 77 20 40 60

Ahh, yes...the CAREER YEAR! While Marchant had a very well established track record (he was amazingly consistent offensively), he suddenly had one explosive year and Doug MacLean must have thought "Gee, he's really turned the corner! I'm getting a 50-60 point guy with great speed and defensive ability?"

Meanwhile, Mistress Reality decided to come back from vacation and is it any surprise that Marchant posted these totals the following year?

2003-04 Columbus Blue Jackets NHL 77 9 25 34

Somebody may want to explain the concept of anomalies with Doug MacLean. Marchant had 7 straight seasons with 33-40 points and then ONE season with an amazing 60 points. Anyone who has watch Todd Marchant blow 250 breakaways a year knows that Marchant was never going to post 60 points a year, especially as father time started to take away more of Marchant's physical abilities. While I would love Marchant on my team, you have to be smart enough to see that he had an established record of performance and he would likely either stay with that consistent production or dip a bit due to age.

"One of these things is not like the other. One of these things just doesn't belong"

Perfect. That's exactly what I, an Oilers fan, thought when Columbus signed Marchant. Edmonton wanted badly to keep him, but that salary was ridiculous. He's a 30-40 point man that can anchor a teams PK and 3rd line. His 60 point year he was pretty much forced on to the first line with Comrie holding out, Reasoner hurt, and the Smyth as a centre experiment going horribly bust.
Too bad MacLean didn't pay attention to the Bruins and Martin Lapointe. The similarities are striking, no?
Yeah just went to another slaughter of the Blue Jackets last night at the hands of the Red Wings. Marchant had a decent game with two assists, but over all he has been a dissapointment . . . so he fits in with the team.
Marchant's 60pt season came largely from the fact that he was was taken off checking duty for that season, and was no longer playing against the top players on other teams. As well, he got alot more power play time than he had in the past, which helped him out quite a bit in terms of scoring.

Too bad the Oilers couldn't have traded him instead of letting him walk away.

Oh well, as long as we're not the ones overpaying him. We've got Mike Peca as it is.
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